Reading The Tea Party's Leaves

The Tea Party movement has grown exponentially in the last year. There have been enormous rallies on Tax Day (April 15th), Independence Day, and the day after 9/11, as well as smaller rallies in between. The grassroots movement is made up of people from all walks of life. There are pros and cons to the movement’s philosophy. First for the pros:

Awareness:

The Tea Party movement is doing a great job of exposing the liberal policies of the Obama Administration and the Democrats in Congress. People who might not have been very politically involved before are starting to come out of the woodwork and they are joining the fight. They are making their voices heard. This is a good thing. Americans are becoming desperate for a return to smaller government and they are demanding it from the politicians in Washington.

Advocacy:

Contrary to the way some members of the media might like to portray the protesters, the Tea Party movement is not about race. The President’s skin color has nothing to do with the reasons people are angry or why they are choosing to protest. The Tea Party movement has three core principles:  fiscal responsibility, constitutionally limited government, and the free market. These fundamental principles are all sound. As conservatives, it is exciting to see a large grassroots movement advocating our general views about economic policy and the size and scope of the federal government. This is a cause for celebration. 

However, there are elements of the Tea Party that are a cause for concern. Here are the cons:

Clean Slate:

Not everyone in the Tea Party movement agrees with this, but there are a number of protesters who want to see 435 brand new members of Congress. There are plenty of reasons to be upset with Washington, but not all of the current members of Congress support higher taxes and higher spending. What about the politicians who have stood up for the principles that the Tea Party movement holds dear? Just because a politician has spent time in Washington, does not automatically mean that they are supporting liberal economic policies (although Washington has had that effect on some). There are politicians who have voted the other way.

There are a number of protesters who will not support a candidate in the primary if that person has ever held elected office. Just because someone has been in public service before does not automatically make them a liberal. Experience is not necessarily a bad thing. In fact, someone with experience might be able to do the job more effectively than a rookie.

“Going Perot”

This is by far the biggest concern about the Tea Party movement. There is a possibility that the Tea Party movement could field a third party candidate in any given race, but most importantly the Presidential race in 2012. An Independent candidate backed by the Tea Party is a recipe for continued liberal policy in Washington. A similar situation occurred in 1992.

In 1992, Ross Perot ran for President as an Independent, a member of a new “Reform Party”. Perot’s candidacy divided the center-right vote in the United States. In that election, Bill Clinton won 43% of the popular vote, George Bush (Sr.) won roughly 37.5% of the vote, and Ross Perot won almost 19% of the vote. If Perot’s votes were divided between Bush and Clinton, Bush would have needed to win approximately two-thirds or more in order to overtake Clinton in the popular vote.

Different scenarios in that election are all retrospect. The results cannot be changed. 2012 is still yet to be determined though. In 2008, Barack Obama was able to defeat John McCain even with McCain receiving essentially the entire center-right vote. Imagine splitting up that center-right vote. Barack Obama would win in a landslide. With that result, would Republicans or Tea Party Independents be happy? Nope! Would either group get what they want? Nope! Despite the Tea Party movement’s good intentions, dividing the center-right vote would actually work strongly against them.

All in all, the Tea Party movement is very positive. They stand for conservative values and they raise awareness about the direction President Obama and the Democrats in Congress are taking this country. It is important though that the members of this movement pick their battles carefully and consider the big-picture consequences of independent candidacy.